World scientists’ warning to humanity

The first notice went out when I was still at school. It was quite brief. What sort of notice was this? It was an attempt of a group of scientist to write a peer-reviewed journal article that was actually addressed at the world population, and in order to try to give it weight, they tried to get as many scientists as possible to add their signature to it. Did it work? Clearly not!

The second notice was 25 years later. I was already working in Bangor by that time. A lot can happen in 25 years! And what happened to the notice? One thing that changed was that they shifted the focus away from the size of the world population. They figured it was not the polite thing to do to blame people for existing, or for having children. And there was 25 years more of data. And pretty much none of that data was encouraging.

As I actually was a scientist by that time, and I must have heard of it (although I don't quite remember how), I signed it. Is it likely to be particularly effective? No! But if someone takes an initiative like that, the least you can do support it. Signing might be largely ineffectual, but doing nothing is worse. Several of my colleagues, such as Stuart and Martyn, had signed as well.

They've clearly not waited another 25 years for the third notice. I received the email already. They are getting ready now for the third notice to be published 10 years after the second one. There is 10 more years of data, and as usual, that does not provide much inspiration for hope.

 

Top of the front page of the draft third notice

So will this third notice get noticed? Quite possibly not. Even though there are now ways attracting attention to something that didn't exist yet 10 years ago. That is not a guarantee of anything, though. Poor old Jacko was really straining to get attention for his Guinness world record. And this is just a text. A lot less sexy than a whole bunch of ultramarathons! But what can one do? If these things come to my attention I will keep signing them. 

I do think that maybe by now the effects of the climate apocalypse are so tangible that people are starting to pay attention. But paying attention is one thing, and changing society to avoid the worst is a different one entirely. I might still have a few decades to live, and I will find out the hard way how this issue pans out over that time…